The Tonali fall out: A symbolic transfer, or one of overblown significance?   

With Sandro Tonali off to Newcastle from Milan, Adam Summerton reflects on the meaning of the transfer and what it means for the Rossoneri and Serie A.

Every so often, a transfer happens that feels like its significance goes beyond the deal itself – one that carries a certain symbolism. I can totally understand why Tonali’s move to Newcastle might be considered in that bracket by some. A boyhood Milan supporter leaving one of Italy’s most decorated clubs even before reaching the peak of his powers. It’s led to an impassioned debate on issues like Premier League power, state influence in football, and the current strength of both Milan and Serie A.

I have to say it’s a transfer that has surprised me. I fully expected Tonali to increase in influence only further at Milan and become a mainstay of the side for many years to come. After a slowish start at San Siro, he’s adapted and improved to the extent that he’s become one of the club’s most important players. He also scored one of the biggest goals in Milan’s recent history – the injury-time winner at Lazio – which played a major part in their 2022 Scudetto success.

Is he irreplaceable though? No – few players are, but he is a loss to Serie A and Milan. Even more so for the latter when you consider the temporary Ismael Bennacer-shaped hole that already exists in the Rossoneri’s midfield. It means they will start the 2023-24 season without any of the three midfielders who played such a big role in the 2021-22 title – Tonali, Bennacer and Franck Kessie. Whether this transfer works out for Milan depends heavily on how they reinvest some or all of the sizeable fee they’ll receive from Newcastle – a record for an Italian footballer and the 4^th most expensive departure from Serie A according to transfermart.co.uk’s figures:

1. Romelu Lukaku – Inter-Chelsea – €113m – August 2021
2. Paul Pogba – Juventus-Manchester United – €105m – August 2016
3. Zinedine Zidane – Juventus-Real Madrid – €77.50m – July 2001
4. Sandro Tonali – Milan-Newcastle United – €75m – June 2023

You could argue, with some conviction, that only one of those three more expensive transfers worked out – Zidane a Real Madrid legend, but second spells in London and Manchester for Lukaku and Pogba respectively have proved costly for all concerned. And there’s a lesson in there – spending big doesn’t always guarantee success, far from it.

Premier League clubs may have deep pockets right now, but you can have more money than sense, and shopping in markets outside the top bracket – if done well – can often yield great success in terms of team-building, as Milan have proven. The Rossoneri simply aren’t wealthy enough to buy the very best, off-the-peg proven talent, but I refuse to accept that this condemns them, or any other Serie A club in a similar position, to be totally unable to compete with richer Premier League clubs on the pitch – they just have to do it in different ways.

Milan got a lot wrong in the summer of 2022, but prior to that, signings like Mike Maignan (€15.4m) Fikayo Tomori (€31.6m), Pierre Kalulu (€1.29m), Theo Hernandez (€22.8m), Bennacer (€17.2m) Rafael Leao (€29.5m) and of course, Tonali (€14.5m) played huge parts in the club’s return to the top of Italian football and the Champions League. Those seven players’ combined cost, according to transfermarkt.co.uk’s figures, was €132.29m.

Every one of them has significantly increased in value while at Milan. In fact, going by transfermarkt.co.uk, those seven players are currently worth €355m, and I’d argue some of these are conservative estimates – as Tonali’s reported €70m fee would suggest. Maignan (€45m) Tomori (€40m) Kalulu (€30m) Hernandez (€60m) Bennacer (€40m) Rafael Leao (€90m) Sandro Tonali (€50m).

Over the last four seasons Milan’s transfer spend, according to the same source, was €303.88m. The Rossoneri spent €54.77m in 2022-23, €93.11m in 2021-22, €31.92m in 2000-21 and €124.08m in 2019-20. In that time they have had three top-four finishes, won the Italian title and had two seasons in the Champions League, reaching the semi-finals in 2022-23.

Compare that to Everton, for example, who’ve spent marginally more in the same period: €313.07m. Yet, the Toffees narrowly escaped relegation in the last two Premier League seasons and can point to little, if any collective increased value in the acquisitions they have made in that period. In fact one of their smartest acquisitions during that time, certainly in terms of increased value, is somebody who was seen as a real punt in Demarai Gray – bought for €2m from Bayer Leverkusen, and now valued at €20m by transfermark.com.

Too much time and energy is wasted by Italian football and its supporters, on bemoaning the Premier League’s financial muscle. I see it every day on social media. The Premier League is the richest league in the world for many reasons – state wealth is one of them and a subject worthy of significant debate, but let’s not pretend that it’s not also because of good governance, infrastructure, marketing, and organisation. The reasons why Serie A has fallen so far behind the Premier League financially are multi-faceted and can be traced back decades, one such example being stadium development – England has been light years ahead of Italy in that respect and has reaped the rewards.

Calcio could do so much internally to close the gap (see my previous article on this here) and I believe it is far better and more productive to focus on the controllables. These include excellent scouting, recruitment, and coaching – all of which are very obtainable for Serie A clubs, Milan included.

The Rossoneri have made such progress in the last few years and it would be a great shame if so many great works were undone in one summer, but I wouldn’t align this risk particularly with Tonali’s departure. Players come and go and money talks – there’s nothing new or revelatory about these things. There’s the temptation to see this as more significant because of Tonali’s profile and his chosen destination – it feeds perfectly into so many different ongoing debates & narratives. But look at the transfer in isolation, take the emotion out of it, and Milan are getting almost five times what they paid for a player who is not yet, despite undeniable ability, a regular first-pick for his country.    

If that money is invested wisely, it could help significantly towards the much-needed replenishment of a first XI that hardly changed at all last season. Someone like Charles De Ketelaere could still yet come good – Rafael Leao, and Tonali himself both improved in their second seasons at San Siro – but it’s a squad that needs bolstering, perhaps most urgently in central midfield, centre-forward and right-wing.

So, having seen hugely influential figures like Paolo Maldini, Frederic Massara and Zlatan Ibrahimovic leave the club, it is so important that Gerry Cardinale takes the right advice, and surrounds himself with the right people, who make good recruitment decisions, both in terms of administrative and playing staff. While ever Premier League clubs remain far wealthier than their Serie A counterparts, and with the Saudi Pro League also emerging as a significant financial power, it is more important than ever that Italian clubs commit as much resource as possible to the identification of talent, both domestically and internationally.

If you can’t afford the best, try and develop them instead – and Serie A still has the kudos and earning potential to keep players that lesser European leagues aren’t able to. Whilst Tonali’s move is a setback in that respect it needn’t become the norm – just like when Liverpool signed a 25-year-old Alberto Aquilani for €20m from Roma in 2009, a player who’d been described by Francesco Totti, no less, as a “complete midfielder” and “potentially, one of the best in the world.” Tonali will hope to fair rather better than his compatriot ultimately did in the Premier League.

Adam Summerton

Twitter: @adamsummerton