Italy moved into second place in Group C of qualification for EURO 2024 thanks to their 2-1 win over Ukraine on Tuesday night, but the job is far from over if the Azzurri are to qualify for the tournament itself next summer.
Luciano Spalletti’s side are now at the halfway point of qualifying, having now faced every team in the group once, picking up two wins, one draw and one loss for a total of seven points.
Italy will need to finish as either group winners or as runners up if they are to qualify directly for the tournament.
Tuesday evening’s victory over Ukraine was massively important for Italy, given that they could have slipped into fourth place in the group with a defeat on the night.
Still, there is plenty of work left to do, beginning with the next international break in October. The national side will host Malta in Bari, before heading off for London to face group leaders England at Wembley. In November, there will be an even more decisive set of fixtures against North Macedonia and Ukraine.
The reality is that England will be tough to catch. Gareth Soutgate’s side are yet to lose and have only dropped points once so far, against Ukraine in Poland on Saturday evening. With 13 points from five games, three points from their next two matches will be enough to qualify.
So, the real battle is for the second qualification spot, and Italy currently hold the advantage. Three teams, Italy, Ukraine and North Macedonia currently have seven points, but the Azzurri, crucially, have played one game fewer and have the best goal difference.
The next game, at home against Malta, should provide a boost in confidence, too. The opponents have not yet picked up a single point in qualifying and a win at home ought to be routine for Italy. That would put Italy on 10 points heading into the England game.
Italy could still afford to lose to England if they go on to beat North Macedonia and Ukraine in the final two matches of qualifying in November.
The only issue there is, that Ukraine could theoretically be ahead of Italy on points heading into their next meeting, which would be the last game of qualification. That scenario would effectively turn the final game into a standalone play-off, away from home.
Before facing Italy, Ukraine will have to face North Macedonia and Malta as well. It is not far-fetched that they could pick up six points from those two matches.
If Ukraine do win their next two and Italy are still within three points of them, the final game between the two sides will become a decider for the second qualification spot. Goal difference will be used as the first deciding factor if two teams are tied on points.
While Italy could still afford to lose to England, a point, or even better, three at Wembley would provide an enormous boost.
Ukraine didn’t show much yesterday.. I think italy goes through
we are talking about these teams we should be able to beat easily even england we are way behind other countries england spain france portugal croatia germany will fix itself even if we qualfy we will not win