While Italy are on the verge of securing a fifth Champions League spot, there is also a way in which there could be six Serie A sides in the expanded tournament.
Following the first leg results of the various quarter-finals, the Italian top flight is almost guaranteed one of the two bonus places in the new and larger 2024-25 edition of the Champions League.
Opta give them a 99.8 per cent chance of securing this spot, compared to 57.8 per cent for England, 41.8 per cent for Germany, 0.4 per cent for France and just 0.1 per cent for Spain.
If Atalanta do not lose to Liverpool in the second leg of the Europa League clash and Fiorentina eliminate Viktoria Plzen in the Conference League quarter-final, then Italy will mathematically lock down that extra spot.
However, there is also the possibility that Italy could have six representatives in the Champions League next season.
If Roma or Atalanta win the Europa League and simultaneously finish outside the Serie A top four, then they will also qualify for the Champions League.
In theory, Roma or Atalanta would be excluded from the list and bump the spot down to sixth place in Serie A.
Football Rankings clarify that this is by not means certain, as UEFA have not entirely clarified the way the extra Champions League spot will be assigned regarding the Europa League victor.
It is therefore possible the clubs will ask for further clarification before going into the Final, especially considering it is very tight in the race for a top five spot in Serie A.
🚨 Italy could have six clubs in the Champions League next season!
For that to happen, AS Roma or Atalanta have to win the Europa League, while finishing out of Top 4 in Serie A.
This considers that Italy will secure extra Champions League spot, almost certain after last night. pic.twitter.com/K3rfHSKsCK
— Football Rankings (@FootRankings) April 12, 2024