Italy need a point against Croatia to be sure of second place in Group B, but defeat could see them slide to third or even fourth, depending on Albania’s result with Spain.
The final games in this group kick off at 20.00 UK time (19.00 GMT).
You can follow all the build-up and action as it happens on the LIVEBLOG.
The Azzurri know that avoiding defeat this evening would guarantee the runner-up spot behind Spain – who already have top place locked down – and a Round of 16 tie against Switzerland.
However, defeat could open up a can of worms and potentially even immediate elimination from EURO 2024.
It wouldn’t be the end of the world, as they could still qualify as one of the fourth best-placed teams in third, but need to wait until all the fixtures are completed to be sure and three points is not a great tally.
The worst case scenario would be Italy losing to Croatia and Albania beating Spain, because then they’d slip down to fourth and be immediately eliminated.
Italy have a superior head-to-head record with Albania, thanks to the 2-1 victory.
However, as Albania and Croatia drew 2-2, they could only be divided by overall goal difference, then total goals scored.
Italy qualify 2nd if…
They avoid defeat to Croatia.
Italy in 3rd if…
They lose to Croatia and Albania do not beat Spain.
Italy in 4th if…
They lose to Croatia and Albania beat Spain.