U21 EURO: Italy vs. Norway – probable line-ups and what Azzurrini need to qualify for QF

Italy U21 meet Norway in the final match of the U21 EURO group phase with Pietro Pellegri and Wilfried Gnonto expected to start up front, but a win may not be enough to qualify for the quarter-finals.

It kicks off at 19:45 BST at the Cluj Arena.

The Azzurrini are level on three points with Switzerland who they beat 3-2 on Sunday. This means a victory against Norway would almost certainly allow them to qualify for the quarter-finals.

However, there are a few scenarios that would see Paolo Nicolato’s boys eliminated even if they win. If Switzerland beat France 4-3 or 3-2, Italy’s opponents will have a better head-to-head record and the Azzurrini will go home.

If the Helvetics beat France 4-3 and Italy win against Norway, three countries will have six points each and the same goal difference in group matches played between them. Therefore, the qualification to the quarter-finals would be down to goals scored in their ‘direct’ meetings. Switzerland would have six, France five and Italy four, so the Azzurrini would be eliminated.

If Switzerland beat France 3-2, they will win the group with Les Blues finishing second, leapfrogging Italy thanks to their 2-1 win in the opening match of the group phase.

Basically, if Switzerland beat France by a one-goal margin but with a different result than 1-0 or 2-1 the Azzurrini will be eliminated even if they beat Norway.

Group winners will face Ukraine, runners-up will meet Spain.

OFFICIAL UEFA RULES

If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following criteria are applied to determine the rankings:

a) higher number of points obtained in the group matches played between
the teams in question;

b) superior goal difference from the group matches played between the
teams in question;

c) higher number of goals scored in the group matches played between the
teams in question;

d) higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches
played between the teams in question;

If, after applying criteria a) to d) to all teams on equal points, two or more teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to d) will be reapplied to determine the ranking of these teams. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e) and f) will apply; e) results of all group matches:

1. superior goal difference
2. higher number of goals scored
3. higher number of goals scored away from home
4. fair play conduct;
   f) drawing of lots.

Italy U21-Norway U21 probable line-ups

Italy U21 (3-5-2): Carnesecchi; Okoli, Pirola, Scalvini; Cambiaso, Miretti, Ricci, Tonali, Parisi; Pellegri, Gnonto.

Norway U21 (4-3-3): Klaesson; Sebulonsen, Heggheim, Daland, Moller Wolfe; Hove, Kitolano, Zafeiris; Jatta, Botheim, Ceide.