These Spain vs. Italy predictions see the two tournament favourites face off in the Nations League semi-final. La Roja beat the Azzurri at this stage in the 2021-22 season, so Roberto Mancini’s side will be out for revenge.
Spain vs. Italy odds
1 – Italy to win – 37/15
2 – Spain to win – 13/10
3 – The game to reach extra time – 9/4
4 – Under 2.5 goals scored – 8/13
5 – Retegui to score anytime – 11/4
Italy take on Spain at the De Grolsch Veste Stadium on Thursday, competing for the right to play in the Nations League final. Both sides have had underwhelming international performances over the past year and will be keen for the chance to secure a morale-boosting trophy.
Honours have been shared evenly over the past five meetings between the two sides, with two wins apiece. That being said, Spain go into the semi-final as clear favourites with the bookmakers, largely due to Italy’s inconsistent form under Roberto Mancini.
Defeat to England in the European qualifiers back in March will be a particular cause for concern, given the Azzurri’s failure to qualify for the latest World Cup. Even so, as Mancini looks to guide Italy through a transitional period, every game provides an opportunity to test new options.
Despite a less than stellar year, the Italian squad is not notably inferior to that of Spain. The Azzurri defence is largely composed of Inter’s back-line that finished as runners-up in the Champions League this season. As a result, it would be a surprise to see Luis de la Fuente’s side run away with it on Thursday.
Instead, we predict a closely fought game with a high probability of extra time needed to decide the fixture. Italy beat Spain on penalties when the two sides met in the European Championship, and Mancini may well rely on the services of Gianluigi Donnarumma once again this week.
With the two sides relatively well matched on paper, fans may well be in for a low-scoring game with our tip of under 2.5 goals scored. Despite both countries boasting a rich history of talented number nines, neither has a top-quality striker to rely upon on Thursday.
Alvaro Morata and Joselu are competing for the starting berth for de la Fuente’s side, while Roberto Mancini will decide between Ciro Immobile and Mateo Retegui. The latter has scored in both games since receiving his call up to the Azzurri and could be worth a punt on adding another against Spain.
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Spain vs. Italy last five matches
Spain last five matches
Italy last five matches
Spain top goal scorers
| Player | Total goals |
|---|---|
| 3 | |
| 2 | |
| 1 | |
| 1 | |
| 1 |
Italy top goalscorers
| Player | Team | Total goals |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | ||
| 2 | ||
| 2 | ||
| 1 | ||
| 1 |
Spain vs. Italy line-ups
Spain (4-3-3): Kepa; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Alba; Canales, Rodri, Ruiz; Olmo, Joselu, Gavi
Italy (4-3-3) Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Acerbi, Bastoni, Dimarco; Barella, Jorginho, Verratti; Raspadori, Retegui, Chiesa
Spain team news
Luis de la Fuente has rung the changes from March’s internationals, with Robin Le Normand likely to start having declared for Spain. Minor injuries to the likes of Pedri, Iago Aspas and Alejandro Balde will force the manager into rotation and Jordi Alba is expected to start despite a lack of game time this season.
Italy team news
Roberto Mancini has a number of decisions on his hands ahead of Thursday’s game, with Italy’s Inter contingent joining the squad later because of Champions League commitments. Whether Francesco Acerbi, Alessandro Bastoni, Federico Dimarco and Nicolo Barella feature from the start remains to be seen.