A new Serie A campaign starts on Saturday and Adam Summerton gives an overview of the league, from the title favourites to potential surprises.
I seem to say this every year, but there is so much to look forward to in Serie A this season. Following the end of Napoli’s decades-long wait for the Scudetto last season, it feels to me like we could potentially see the most competitive and exciting title race of Europe’s top-five leagues.
The Race for the Scudetto
This is exceptionally difficult to predict – I’d suggest there are seven clubs who might all consider themselves in with a chance, with varying degrees of probability. There is no standout for me – all have their strengths, but all feel fallible too. That may seem an odd thing to say when we’ve just seen Napoli win the title by 16 points, but I think the losses of Spalletti and Kim are very significant, and with four different champions in as many seasons, we’ve seen the Scudetto is very difficult to defend in this current era where there is no standout club, the one club dominance of Juventus long over.
The Bianconeri may feel their absence from European competition gives them an advantage over other contenders, and it’s worth remembering that without their 10-point deduction, Juve would have finished 3rd last season. Much will depend on the fitness of their top players, too many of whom were absent for long periods last season – a very big year beckons for Federico Chiesa in particular.
Milan have kept their best wide man, and Rafael Leao may well have been impressed with the way his club have strengthened their squad with the funds fetched by the sale of Sandro Tonali to Newcastle United. There is no denying he is a big loss in central midfield, but the Rossoneri now appear to have greater strength in depth and have addressed key areas of weakness from last season – perhaps most notably the right wing. How their new additions settle, particularly those in midfield will be key to Milan’s chances of success.
The Rossoneri’s city rivals Inter will take a lot of confidence from reaching last season’s Champions League final, in which they were narrowly edged out by Manchester City, and after winning four cup competitions in his first two seasons, Simone Inzaghi knows he must deliver more in the league this time. The departures of players like André Onana and Milan Skriniar don’t help, but I’d suggest the Nerazzurri still have the league’s strongest squad on paper, and a key addition to that could prove to be Marcus Thuram (more on him later) – if he can strike up a strong rapport with Lautaro, Inter won’t be far away.
Following their heartbreaking loss in last season’s Europa League final, Roma’s summer has been underwhelming and whilst the Giallorossi cannot be completely ruled out, their failure to properly reinforce a squad that fell short of the top-four last season, would leave me to suggest a more realistic target is to finally get back in the top-four.
Atalanta are, for me, big outsiders, but Gianluca Scamacca could well prove to be a very shrewd signing and Gian Piero Gasperini has proved repeatedly that his sides are capable of punching above their weight.
Dark horse
I remember, with great fondness, Maurizio Sarri’s third season at Napoli. It produced some of the most attractive football I’ve ever seen, and they came oh so close to the title. This is now Sarri’s third season at The Olimpico and the previous campaign’s second-place finish brought encouraging signs that his painstaking methods are coming to their fullest fruition. There can be no doubt that the loss of Sergej Milinkovic-Savic to Saudi Arabia is a significant one – he’ll be particularly missed by Ciro Immobile – but the arrival of Daichi Kamada is a real positive, and I’m also intrigued to see what Gustav Isaksen can do. Most of the group that took Lazio to Champions League qualification remain, so there is the continuity Sarri’s methods require – how well they balance the demands of domestic and top-level European competition will be very important for their Serie A ambitions.
Conclusion
I cannot predict a title winner with any level of conviction – it looks completely wide open, more so than any of the other top-five European leagues.
I’m going to gamble that Milan’s new signings will have the level of impact required to win their second title in three seasons. The Rossoneri underwhelmed in the league last season and would’ve missed out on the top-four without Juve’s points deduction, but much of the squad remains that won the title in 2022 and they’ve added several players who’re either full of potential or have something to prove. It looks like a squad with much better balance, and Pioli has also never had more strength in depth during his time at Milan. I could also make strong cases for Inter, Napoli, Juventus, and possibly even Lazio, but I had to pick one and I’ve gone for the Rossoneri.
Top-four prediction
Milan
Inter
Napoli
Juventus
The relegation battle
Just like the title race, this is very difficult to predict. It’s great to have Claudio Ranieri back in Serie A with Cagliari at the age of 71, what a story that was last season. Genoa have also bounced straight back to the top flight under Alberto Gilardino, swapping places with city rivals, Sampdoria and signing Italy international Mateo Retegui. It’ll be fascinating to see whether Frosinone can stay up having won the Serie B title last season. Having finished 16th and 17th respectively in 2022-23, I think Lecce and Verona will be under threat again – neither has done enough in the market to inspire confidence that it won’t be another season of struggle for them.
Bottom three
Frosinone
Lecce
Verona
Players to watch
As I sat pondering this my mind went back to this time last year when few people in Italy knew a lot about players like Kim Min-jae, or Khvicha Kvaratskhelia – they’re now league champions with one taking the league’s Best Defender award, the other Serie A MVP.
I’m naturally led to wonder whether we could see any new additions to the league make a big impact this season, and there are several candidates. Kamada at Lazio is someone I’ve seen a fair bit of in European competition and I think he could thrive in Sarri’s system. Another player I’ve been impressed by is Noah Okafor, and I’m fascinated to see how well he makes the step up to playing in one of the top European leagues, having previously played in Switzerland and Austria – he could prove to be a bargain at €14m.
From a defensive perspective, I think Roma have got themselves a very good player in Evan N’Dicka – a Europa League winner with Eintracht Frankfurt who should find playing in Italy will develop and enhance his game even further.
The player I’m going to pick though is Inter’s Thuram. The French international comes to Serie A off the back of a very good season at Borussia Monchengladbach where he directly contributed to 23 goals in 32 appearances (16 goals / 7 assists) and his overall body of work in the Bundesliga stands up to scrutiny – 44 goals and 29 assists in 134 appearances. Several factors will be significant in how well he does. Adapting to a more tactical league will be a challenge – and he is used to playing alone up-front in a 4-2-3-1 set-up – at Inter he’ll be playing in a two with Lautaro Martinez – so there’s adapting to do there too – but I’d back him to acclimatise well, and to strike up a good rapport with the Nerazzurri’s new captain.
Here’s to another great season of Calcio, I hope you enjoy it.
Twitter: @adamsummerton