Former Italy coach Cesare Prandelli analysed the Azzurri’s decisive Euro 2024 duel with Croatia, explaining why a ‘precise technical plan’ could make the difference.
Luciano Spalletti’s side currently sit second in Group B with three points, three behind Spain and two ahead of both Albania and Croatia. A positive result in their final match of this stage would be enough to take the team to the Round of 16.
Italy showed some positives in their opening game against Albania but failed to impress in the loss to Spain, causing doubts amongst fans as the clash with Croatia approaches. Some changes are expected in the Azzurri setup, which could help shake things up.
The Azzurri would be able to progress to the knockout stages of the European Championship with a third-place finish in the group, but it would set up a tougher match in the Round of 16, making their final game crucially important for their hopes of progressing further into the tournament.
Prandelli analyses Croatia vs Italy
Writing for La Gazzetta dello Sport, Prandelli analysed Italy’s upcoming clash with Croatia, explaining what’s needed and giving some parallels to the past.
“My Italy – Croatia match at the 2012 European Championship came on the second day of the group, but the sense of a key match was the same. With Ireland the weak link, us and the Croatians would probably play for second place behind Spain.
“It was a hard-fought game, us taking the lead through Andrea Pirlo in the first half, them equalising with Mandzukic at the end.
“In theory, Italy’s situation is more complicated. It’s true that we have two results out of three at our disposal but, whether you like it or not, your thoughts always run to the worst-case scenario. And so, you have to be good, like Luciano, at conveying only positive feelings.
“Gigi Buffon will help the coach with his character and experience. You mustn’t communicate any ‘buts’ to the guys. You have to give the awareness of the difficulty but also mental and technical-tactical confidence.
“A joke, a pat on the back at the right moment, a look, some encouragement, everything is useful. And, of course, the meticulous preparation of game situations. Clear ideas, not a lot of them, but no grey areas. The guys must know what to do and what not to do.
“A precise technical plan lowers the tension, which will inevitably be very high. That was a younger, more physical Croatia. We had prepared filtering passes to overcome their pressing, forcing Modric to drop back or a central defender to come out.
“We also didn’t have to defend in the area, if possible, but stand up a bit. Finally, the plan was to take away the Croatian forwards’ calmness, our defenders had to move all the time, even just a little, making the forwards fear that they would end up offside.
“Compared to that match, there is an important difference: this Croatia run less but are more experienced and will try to put the game on their rhythms, on their dribbling. This would put us in difficulty because they’re very technical.
“Italy must therefore set a different strategy, raising the pace, pressing, a bit like Albania did in the first match, but they have less overall quality. Pressing, even at the cost of risking something at the back, but forcing them to sweat and run.
“If the game slows down, they have the advantage. They have long been rumoured to be finished, but at the World Cup they reached the semi-finals, in the Nations League they lost in the final to Spain, in short, the Croatians always have the key to survival.
“There is a lot of talk about Modric, who has played little as a starter in Real Madrid, alternating with Kroos, and almost never a full game. But Croatia are not Real Madrid. This national team was born with him, and the cycle will end when he says enough.
“His teammates know this and multiply their energies and sacrifices, sparing him too much effort, because they know that with him beside them, they are never alone, there is always an outlet, some support, an idea.
“Brozovic and Perisic, two key players, are also in question, and their physical condition isn’t optimal, but they can always invent the key move that changes the game. We cannot underestimate them. However, if you increase the intensity they’ll struggle to chase you. Luciano knows that.
“One thing that can help us is the fact that this Italy has the spirit of their coach, they’re not used to defending, they don’t accept the draw if not forced.
“Perhaps, unconsciously, against Spain they thought about the equaliser and paid for it. With Croatia they won’t make this mistake, Italy won’t lose Spalletti’s soul.
“I have some perplexity, objectively, on the tactical level because the 3-2-4-1 is a system that needs time to be assimilated. The one who paid the most was Di Lorenzo, who had difficulty playing as a third defender, without the reference of the lateral line for marking, diagonals and more.
“He often found himself in a space that wasn’t his own. But Luciano sees his team every day and, I assure you, there’s no coach who doesn’t field his best.
“He’ll evaluate if Barella will be more useful to give depth, if Fagioli’s vertical visions will be useful, if Retegui’s concreteness will be better or Scamacca’s technique, but he has to understand one thing, he is the centre forward of this team and he cannot always think that we can go dribbling.
“We also need a number 9 who keeps the ball, gets the team up and doesn’t immediately look for the support. This isn’t a match like any other and we need everyone to play, not just those on the pitch, but the Italy delegation, so that those playing in Leipzig tomorrow never feel alone.”