Italy have nothing to fear, but everything to lose

On the eve of the World Cup play-offs draw, Giancarlo Rinaldi looks at Italy’s possible opponents and highlights where the Azzurri must improve for their games in March.

It was supposed to be so easy. Italy were sitting pretty in their World Cup qualifying group with three wins out of three by the time they were crowned European champions in the summer. However, one victory in the next five fixtures has left them facing the lottery of the play-offs when topping their section had looked little more than a formality. It all feels a bit like sitting down to tuck into a finest Bistecca Fiorentina only to find someone has whipped the plate away and replaced it with a burger and fries.

The Azzurri will just have to roll up their sleeves and get on with it, though. There is no use crying over missed Jorginho penalties and what might have been. The harsh reality is that Roberto Mancini’s men go into the knockout draw against a string of sides who would be more than happy to further tarnish their already slightly dented continental crown.

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Round one, at least, will be at home although that has not been the source of any particular comfort of late. Nonetheless, it should provide some vital moral support for a mission which has become more complicated than unravelling a plate of spaghetti. Any assistance to get themselves untangled will be gratefully received.

The teams going into the hat on Friday as potential first leg opponents for La Nazionale are a mixed bunch. Austria, Czech Republic, North Macedonia, Poland, Turkey and Ukraine could all stand in their way. None of them look to represent a dreadful draw – on paper at least – but none of them look particularly easy either.

Far and away the most familiar foe, due to geographical proximity, would be Austria – who enjoy a pretty decent record in skirmishes across the border. Indeed, they have won no fewer than a dozen times in 38 clashes with their near neighbours. However, the last of them came more than 60 years ago, which should reassure Giorgio Chiellini and company.

Mancini considers Joao Pedro and Lucca for Italy

The Czech Republic and Poland are the only other two with wins over the Azzurri in their past and the latter – at least in theory – looks like one of the more complicated adversaries. Turkey, Ukraine and North Macedonia may never have managed to defeat Italy but they have all managed draws (if you include Macedonia matches) which, of course, could be enough if the lottery of penalties decides the tie.

If they can win the first round, then more tricky adversaries lie in store. Portugal stand out as a team that the boys in blue would be keen to avoid but there are plenty of other potential difficulties around the corner. Sweden, for example, would bring back bad memories of the last World Cup qualification campaign but Scotland, Russia or Wales would all represent tough customers – especially if the second match had to be played away from home.

However, a major consolation for the Italy camp will be the breathing space they now enjoy until March when the play-off games must be played. Their form has been pretty desperate since the summer and a little bit of time to gather their thoughts and address a few issues will be welcome. They should also rest assured that none of the other teams in the hat will be keen to meet them in the Spring.

The most chronic headache to address is, as everyone knows, a lack of cutting edge. It was a problem ahead of the Euros and it has reared its ugly head once again. It has prompted all sorts of suggestions as to how it could be resolved. Some have flagged up the eligibility of Cagliari‘s Joao Pedro to join the Italy fold. Others are encouraging Mancini to look at the form of youngster Lorenzo Lucca in Serie B. And, finally, the biggest gamblers have suggested rolling the dice on Mario Balotelli once again. To be honest, though, that would smack of desperation more than anything if they did go down that route.

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Hopefully, Club Italia can get a big boost by bringing all its wounded soldiers back on the front line which might be more important than any new faces. A return for Giorgio Chiellini, Marco Verratti and Leonardo Spinazzola would upgrade this side no end. They might not provide the goals they need but they would give a solid base and help create more scoring opportunities.

There’s no need to panic but it will be a time to perhaps reassess a few things. Has the Azzurri’s style become a bit too pedantic and predictable? What is the best striking option for a team which has lacked a prolific No. 9? And should Jorginho be relieved of penalty duties?

These are questions for Bobby Mancini to answer and nobody would envy him the search for the answers. He showed at the European Championships he could create a great unit, but this little mini-qualification competition will pose him another challenge. He has already done great things, but to miss out on a World Cup would be a significant setback. The Italians go into the draw this week as among the favourites to qualify for sure but – be in no doubt – there are 11 other countries in there who would love to send them packing.