Italy may once again have to participate in a play-off match as they seek to qualify for the 2026 World Cup.
The Azzurri currently sit in 2nd place in Group I, six points behind group leaders Norway, albeit with a game in hand.
Only the top team in each group qualifies automatically and Norway’s resounding 11-1 win over Moldova means they have a considerable goal difference advantage.
Italy must hope that Norway drop points before the two teams meet in November, otherwise it will once again be play-off drama for the Azzurri.
However, as Italy look at potentially facing a play-off contest, despite losing just once in their four games so far, we can see the disparity between how things work in Europe, and how they work in South America, where Brazil have qualified automatically for next year’s tournament despite winning just eight and losing six of their 18 matches.
Europe is tougher to qualify as Italy prepare for play-offs
As revealed by Italian journalist Giovanni Capuano on X, the system for World Cup qualification could use some improvement.
In the South American CONMEBOL qualifying, six of the ten teams qualify automatically, with one having to participate in the play-offs.
Capuano calculated that for a South American side to qualify for the World Cup, it can be done with as little as 1.16 points per game. Meanwhile, a European team with that record would not even be close to a play-off place, let alone automatic qualification.
Meanwhile, the journalist also notes that 8 of the top 10 teams in the FIFA World Rankings are from Europe, with 15 in the top 30.
Therefore, whilst Italy may receive criticism and rightly so if the nation fails to qualify for a major tournament, it is not so easy for European teams to book their place in the finals, especially compared to how easy it can be for other big nations around the world.
How many European teams are in the tournament vs South American teams? Also it has been the toughest qualification zone for a long time. Europeans shouldn’t look for excuses when it comes to World Cup qualifying. Such a shame that’s even brought up smh
You know we are rubbish when we begin to make excu5e5 about the qualifying format.
Well before a ball was even kicked, I 5aid that if we can’t finish top in a group containing a country who haven’t qualified for a wc since 1998, then we don’t des5erve to qualify. When we win, it is becau5e we did it. And when we fail, we have to own it.
If is supposed to be the best teams in the world, why not go by world ranking, who cares where the teams come from?
There are way more European teams that are allowed to qualify for the World Cup, if it’s harder, shouldn’t it be so???? What about highlighting, in the same group Italy is in, a team that conceded 11 goals from Norway! How “hard” is it to beat them????? Norway scored 11 against them and most South American teams would beat Norway. Please stop being so biased and privileged.
It is a bit absurd. Peru and Chile would give Norway a hard time and they came dead last in qualifying. To suggest Italy are hard done-by is ridiculous.
Brazil will play 18 qualifying games. Italy will be lucky to play 10 and not qualify. There are 59 nations in Europe, 10 in south America with one group. Before the nations league was introduced, Europe had less groups either more teams in each group and more games played. The top 2 in each group qualified automatically. It’s stupid that a team like Brazil could lose 5 or 6 games and qualify and Italy could lose 2 games, in half the games played when you compare, and not qualify. The system has changed, it’s allows for no mistakes, which isn’t very sporting.
Hahaha-sure blame the qualifying format, etc. Should have look at ourselves in the mirror when we did not qualify the first time in 2018 (ala ther German did in early 2000 revamping the youth sector etc when their national team was not in good condition – that they still qualify for wc) . Instead what did our clubs do – increase non-Italian not only in serie a but also in the academies and not revamping the youth sector. Yeah blame the qualifying format!!! The sad thing is we may not qualify to the wc for a 3rd straight time and yet nothing will be done…. it could be 4th ,5th and on and on time missing the wc..
Franco and Geo are spot on!
Both sets of Facts are equally true without contradiction.
@Manga Cake: “why not go by world ranking, who cares where the teams come from?” Because FIFA Ranking is biased for UEFA ( and Conmebol to a lesser extent) because it adds a coefficient according to the confederation a teams, so if Australia beat the #1 team in a ranking they get less points than if Spain beats them, even though it’s arguably harder to a team from a “weak” Confederation to win. That’s one reason why, for example, France can take #1 is they get enough wins in their Qualy group (againts teams that have a combined 2 WC participations, and one of them is at war) even though current #1 (Argentina) has won every tournament they’ve taken part for the last 4 years and France has won none.
UEFA is reportedly considering changes to the World Cup qualification format.
Here’s a practical proposal 👇
Stage 1 – Pre-Qualification: 22 teams from Nations League Leagues C & D compete. ➜ 12 advance | 10 eliminated (via groups + play-offs)
Stage 2 – Main Qualification: 44 teams → 4 groups of 11. ➜ 20 games each (home & away) ➜ Top 4 from each group qualify = 16 UEFA World Cup spots.
A structure combining fairness + consistency + commercial balance.