Italy are already on the cusp of booking their spot in the knockout stages of Euro 2024, so how is progression to the Round of 16 decided?

The Azzurri edged out a key win over Albania in their opening match of Euro 2024, coming back from an early 1-0 deficit to grind out a 2-1 victory after goals from Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolo Barella. In the other match of Group B, Spain cruised to a 3-0 victory over Croatia.

Italy are now gearing up for a tense clash with Spain in their second group outing, a game that could be vitally important in determining the victor of Group B, which would set up a match against a third-place team in the Round of 16 on June 30th.

How Italy can progress in Euro 2024

Finishing first or second in Group B would see Italy qualify for the Round of 16 at Euro 2024, and even ending up third may be enough, with history showing that four points in total is enough to progress as one of the top four ranked third-placed teams.

Four of the six teams that finish third in their groups progress and three points could even be enough, depending on goal difference.

Article 20 of UEFA’s Regulations for Euro 2024 explains the tiebreaker criteria used to determine which team would finish ahead should they tie on points with another.

A. Higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question;

B. Superior goal difference resulting from the matches played among the teams in question;

C. Higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question;

D. If, after having applied criteria a) to c), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to c) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e) to h) apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal:

E. Superior goal difference in all group matches;

F. Higher number of goals scored in all group matches;

G. Lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);

H. Position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings (see Article 23), or if Germany, the host association team, is involved in the comparison, drawing of lots.

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